Tuesday, June 11, 2013

How Advani has it wrong

LK Advani , Senior leader of the BJP , the main opposition party in India, has just quit in a fit of pique.
The object of his consternation is the elevation of former protege , Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi to Chairman of the Election Committee.
By choosing this moment to register his displeasure , Advani is playing the only card he thinks he had. Should the elections go in the favor of the BJP, Modi will no doubt corner the credit, and likely most Members of Parliament will also owe allegiance to Modi(since he is the one handing out the tickets)
But unfortunately the timing just makes Advani look petulant. I don't think anyone can make the case that that an 85 year old Advani is a candidate for Prime Minister or that he has the kind of personal pull anymore with the voters.
All Advani has to do is look back at history to see how he could have got a far more optimal result.
In the late 80's early 90's , as far as vote getting ability went and personal popularity went, LK Advani was probably worth more to the BJP than AB Vajpayee. That Vajpayee became Prime Minister probably had a lot more to do with how the allies felt about Advani vs Vajpayee, than the support each of them had in the BJP. To his credit , Advani was willing to play second fiddle to Vajpayee, so as to not derail the BJP's national ambitions.
Now juxtaposing that with the present times, its fairly obvious that the allies or potential allies will be a lot more at ease with anyone but Modi as PM. And what the allies want will count for a lot unless the BJP can approach the 240-250 mark by itself. You don't have to be a psephologist to conclude the chances of that happening are miniscule to none.

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